The Evolution of OSINT and Beyond in Modern Investigations
The Coalition of Cyber Investigators explore applications of OSINT in solving complex cases and addressing global challenges from the early 2000s to the present day.
Paul Wright & Neal Ysart
1/9/20259 min read


The Evolution of OSINT and Beyond in Modern Investigations
Open-source intelligence (OSINT) has emerged as a powerful tool for investigators, analysts, and researchers. This article explores the diverse applications of OSINT and other intelligence disciplines in solving complex cases and addressing global challenges from the early 2000s to the present day.
OSINT IN CRIMINAL INVESTIGATIONS
In October 2021, Sir Mark Rowley published an article entitled "Open-source intelligence - the Cinderella of the investigative family?" which pointed out several benefits of incorporating OSINT into investigation strategies. Various tools and platforms are designed to assist investigators in utilising open-source information quickly, securely, and effectively. However, without a strategic commitment to integrate these open-source tools into a well-rounded set of capabilities within the investigator’s toolkit, many organisations may encounter cultural, bias, technical, and commercial obstacles that leave this aspect of their resources underutilised[1]. Conversely, OSINT has helped transform many investigations by providing intelligence professionals with publicly accessible information to bolster their cases, as demonstrated in several high-profile instances[2].
Bin Laden's Abbottabad Compound (2010-2011)
The location of Osama bin Laden's compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, was determined using Geospatial Open-Source Intelligence (GEOINT). From late 2010 to early 2011, analysts employed satellite imagery and human terrain analysis to identify and confirm the location, leading to one of the most significant counterterrorism operations in history on May 2, 2011[3].
Edward Snowden's NSA Revelations (2013)
Edward Snowden's June 2013 revelations about the National Security Agency (NSA) programs revealed the extent of global Signal Intelligence (SIGINT) operations. These disclosures exposed the scale of data collection from digital communications worldwide, sparking intense debates about privacy and national security that continue to this day[4].
The Capture of ISIS Jihadi John (2014-2015)
One of the most notable examples of OSINT's effectiveness in criminal investigations is the identification of Mohammed Emwazi, infamously known as "Jihadi John." Between 2014 and 2015, analysts utilised publicly available videos, social media data, and advanced voice recognition techniques to narrow down his identity[5]. This case demonstrates the power of OSINT in combating international terrorism and bringing high-profile criminals to justice[6].
Bellingcat's MH17 Investigation (2014-2019)
The investigation into the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 on July 17, 2014, stands as a testament to the capabilities of OSINT. Bellingcat, an independent investigative collective, employed various OSINT techniques to uncover crucial evidence. From 2014 to 2019, by analysing satellite imagery and social media posts and using geolocation techniques, Bellingcat was able to prove that Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine were responsible for shooting down the aircraft. The investigation tracked the Buk missile launcher used in the attack back to the 53rd Air Defence Brigade in Russia, identified key suspects, and uncovered other revelations linking the Russian Federation to the incident. The official Joint Investigation Team later confirmed this groundbreaking work in 2018, highlighting the credibility and effectiveness of OSINT methodologies[7].
Wildfire Monitoring with GEOINT (2018-Present)
Beyond military applications, GEOINT has proven invaluable in disaster management. Since around 2018, governments and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have increasingly utilised satellite imagery and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to track and predict the spread of wildfires in California, enabling more effective resource allocation and evacuation planning[8]
Human Trafficking Investigations (2018-Present)
Since around 2018, law enforcement agencies have begun leveraging AI tools to analyse enormous volumes of online advertisements, social media posts, and dark web data in their efforts to combat human trafficking. Natural language processing and image recognition technologies have proven invaluable in identifying patterns and connections that might otherwise go unnoticed, significantly enhancing the effectiveness of these investigations[9].
THE POWER OF OSINT TECHNIQUES
In an era where information is abundant and critical, OSINT has emerged as a cornerstone of modern investigative and security practices. The power of OSINT techniques lies in harnessing publicly available data to provide invaluable insights across a broad spectrum of applications. From GEOINT, which offers crucial spatial and temporal context in both military and civilian spheres, to SIGINT, which plays a pivotal role in national security, the landscape of intelligence gathering is vast and varied. As we venture further into the digital age, the fusion of AI with OSINT represents the cutting edge of this field, promising to unlock new levels of analytical capability.
The success of OSINT in these high-profile cases can be attributed to several key techniques that have evolved and improved over the past two decades:
1. Social Media Analysis (2004-Present)
Since social media platforms rose in the mid-2000s, investigators have scrutinised them for posts, images, and connections that can provide valuable leads[10]. This technique has been crucial in tracking criminal activities and identifying suspects[11].
2. Geolocation (2005-present)
With the proliferation of GPS-enabled devices and geotagged content, analysts can pinpoint the exact locations of events or individuals by analysing visual cues in images and videos[12]. This has been particularly useful in criminal investigations and counterterrorism efforts.
3. Chronolocation (2010-Present)
Establishing timelines through metadata and content analysis helps reconstruct events and verify alibis[13]. This technique has become increasingly sophisticated since 2010.
4. Network or Link Analysis (2000s-Present)
Mapping relationships and connections between individuals or organisations can reveal hidden links and hierarchies[14]. This method has been refined throughout the 21st century and is particularly effective in investigating organised crime and cybercrime networks[15].
5. Data Mining (1990s-Present)
Automated tools sift through vast amounts of data to identify patterns and anomalies, a technique that has significantly advanced with the rise of big data[16] in the 2010s[17]. This has enabled investigators to process and analyse large volumes of information efficiently, enhancing the effectiveness of OSINT in various fields, including terrorism[18], fraud prevention, and cybersecurity.
These techniques highlight the need for a comprehensive and standardised approach to OSINT and the increasing application of technology innovations such as AI. They emphasise the importance of developing unified frameworks, ethical guidelines, and operational standards to ensure consistency, effectiveness, and responsible use of these technologies, for example:
1. There is a need for unified frameworks with standardised definitions and interoperability protocols[19].
2. The importance of a comprehensive ethical charter and code of conduct specific to advanced intelligence disciplines[20].
3. Compliance mandates must align with existing laws and anticipate future AI-specific regulations[21].
4. The requirement for criteria to validate data collected via AI systems[22].
5. The OSINT community is working to standardise fundamental areas such as ethical frameworks, evidence-collection protocols, and verification methodologies[23].
CONCLUSION
Intelligence gathering and investigations have changed significantly since the beginning of the 21st century. OSINT has become a fundamental aspect of contemporary investigative methods. The future of OSINT and its related fields promises even more groundbreaking advancements.
Integrating AI and machine learning with OSINT techniques is set to bring about a new era in intelligence gathering. These innovations are expected to improve our capacity to process and analyse large volumes of data at remarkable speeds, revealing patterns and connections that might otherwise go unnoticed. We can expect the development of more advanced predictive analytics, enabling us to take proactive measures rather than just reacting to security threats and investigations.
Nevertheless, as we adopt these technological advancements, we must confront their ethical implications. The ability to gather and analyse extensive amounts of publicly available information raises critical concerns regarding privacy, consent, and potential misuse. Therefore, the future of OSINT should be guided not only by technological progress but also by strong ethical standards and legal regulations.
Looking ahead, we can expect to see several critical requirements being addressed, including:
Greater international cooperation to establish standards and best practices for OSINT use, particularly in cross-border investigations.
Establish a working group of OSINT experts, ethicists, and legal professionals to develop a comprehensive ethical framework tailored explicitly to OSINT and associated intelligence discipline practices.
Creation of standardised data collection, verification, and attribution protocols that can be widely adopted across the intelligence community.
Developing best practices for integrating AI technologies into OSINT workflows, helping ensure transparency and accountability.
Collaboration with policymakers to draft guidelines that align with existing legal frameworks and anticipate future regulatory needs in AI-supported intelligence.
Implementing training programs for OSINT practitioners to consistently apply ethical standards and methodologies across the industry.
Introduction of a peer-review system for OSINT methodologies and tools to maintain high standards and promote continuous improvement.
As we enter this new intelligence gathering and investigation phase, we must balance harnessing OSINT's full potential and associated technologies while upholding ethical standards and maintaining public trust. OSINT's future hinges on its technological advancements and our capacity to responsibly and effectively use them to tackle global challenges, enhance security, and promote justice.
The development of OSINT has transformed professional investigations. However, its potential will only be realised when we combine technological progress with a strong dedication to ethical practices, legal compliance, and respect for individual privacy. Moving forward, the OSINT community must continue to innovate, adapt, and, most importantly, take the lead in creating robust governance frameworks that ensure the responsible and effective use of these powerful investigative tools.
In summary, the future of OSINT is promising, filled with potential, and brimming with opportunities to create a safer and more transparent world. Nevertheless, we must approach this journey with caution, wisdom, and an unwavering commitment to ethical practices. As we explore the limits of what OSINT can achieve, we must never forget the fundamental principles that guide responsible intelligence gathering and investigation.
Authored by: The Coalition of Cyber Investigators
Paul Wright (United Kingdom) & Neal Ysart (Philippines)
© 2025 The Coalition of Cyber Investigators. All rights reserved.
The Coalition of Cyber Investigators is a collaboration between
Paul Wright (United Kingdom) - Experienced Cybercrime, Intelligence (OSINT & HUMINT) and Digital Forensics Investigator; and
Neal Ysart (Philippines) - Elite Investigator & Strategic Risk Advisor, Ex-Big 4 Forensic Leader.
With over 80 years of combined hands-on experience, Paul and Neal remain actively engaged in their field.
They established the Coalition to provide a platform to collaborate and share their expertise and analysis of topical issues in the converging domains of investigations, digital forensics and OSINT. Recognising that this convergence has created grey areas around critical topics, including the admissibility of evidence, process integrity, ethics, contextual analysis and validation, the coalition is Paul and Neal’s way of contributing to a discussion that is essential if the unresolved issues around OSINT derived evidence are to be addressed effectively. Please feel free to share this article and contribute your views.
[1] The Police Foundation & by The Police Foundation. (2024, April 19). Open source intelligence - the Cinderella of the investigative family? - The Police Foundation. The Police Foundation. https://www.police-foundation.org.uk/2021/10/open-source-intelligence-the-cinderella-of-the-investigative-family/ (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[2] Imossi, T. (2024, February 14). Open source intelligence. The Association of British Investigators. https://www.theabi.org.uk/news/open-source-intelligence (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[3] The Atlantic, "The Little-Known Agency That Helped Kill Bin Laden", by Marc Ambinder, May 5, 2011, https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2011/05/the-little-known-agency-that-helped-kill-bin-laden/238454/ (Accessed 08 January, 2025)
[4] The NSA files | The Guardian. (n.d.). https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/the-nsa-files (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[5]“Who Is Mohammed Emwazi? What We Know About Man ID’ed as 'Jihadi John”, February 26, 2015, https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/unmasking-jihadi-john-who-mohammed-emwazi-n313336 (Accessed 08 January, 2025).
[6] Wikipedia contributors. (2024, December 20). Jihadi John. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jihadi_John (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[7] Team, B. I. (2020, October 12). Identifying the Separatists Linked to the Downing of MH17 - bellingcat. Bellingcat. https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2019/06/19/identifying-the-separatists-linked-to-the-downing-of-mh17/ (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[8] Gomez, M. (2024, September 17). Google to spend $13 million to use AI to better detect wildfires - Los Angeles Times. Los Angeles Times. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-09-17/google-to-invest-in-satellites-and-ai-to-better-detect-wildfires (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[9] Using artificial intelligence in the fight against human trafficking. (n.d.). https://www.bath.ac.uk/case-studies/using-artificial-intelligence-in-the-fight-against-human-trafficking/ (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[10] Team, O. I. (n.d.). Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT) in modern Investigations. OSINT Industries. https://www.osint.industries/post/social-media-intelligence-socmint-in-modern-investigations (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[11] Links, S. (2024, January 19). OSINT in Social Media Investigations | Blog | Social links. OSINT Blog by Social Links | OSINT Investigations. https://blog.sociallinks.io/osint-and-social-media-investigations-the-perfect-combination/ (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[12] The Basics of Geolocation for OSINT. (n.d.). https://library.mosse-institute.com/articles/2022/07/the-basics-of-geolocation-for-osint/the-basics-of-geolocation-for-osint.html (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[13] Chronolocation of media. Sector035. (n.d.). https://sector035.nl/articles/chronolocation-of-media (Accessed 08 January, 2025)
[14] Howlett, J. B. (1980). Analytical Investigative Techniques - Tools for Complex Criminal Investigations. Police Chief, 47(12), 42-45
[15] Forensic Focus. (2024). Fighting Crime With Data: Law Enforcement In The 21st Century. https://www.forensicfocus.com/articles/fighting-crime-with-data-law-enforcement-in-the-21st-century/ (Accessed 08 January 2025).
[16] Secretariat. (2023b, November 15). The evolution of OSINT. The Association of British Investigators. https://www.theabi.org.uk/news/the-evolution-of-osint (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[17] Mihet, V. (2024, November 20). The evolution of OSINT: From traditional to digital. Medium. https://osintteam.blog/the-evolution-of-osint-from-traditional-to-digital-46da8682eab8 (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[18] Dawson, M., Lieble, M., & Adeboj, A. (2017). Open Source Intelligence: Performing Data Mining and Link Analysis to Track Terrorist Activities. In S. Latifi (Ed.), Information Technology - New Generations: 14th International Conference on Information Technology (Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing Vol. 558, pp. 159-163). Springer.
[19] RecordedFuture. (n.d.). What is the OSINT Framework? How can you use it. https://www.recordedfuture.com/threat-intelligence-101/intelligence-sources-collection/osint-framework (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[20] Raza, A. (2024, December 2). Application of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) framework in the modern era. AML Watcher. https://amlwatcher.com/blog/application-of-open-source-intelligence-osint-framework-in-the-modern-era/ (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[21] Sierra, S. (2024, December 26). New DOJ Compliance Guidelines: Managing AI As An Emerging Risk. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbesbusinesscouncil/2024/12/26/new-doj-compliance-guidelines-managing-ai-as-an-emerging-risk/ (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[22] Office of the Director of National Intelligence. (2023). Intelligence Community Standard (ICS) 206-01: Open Source Intelligence. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICD/ICS-206-01.pdf (Accessed 08 January 2025)
[23] ObSINT. (2024). Guidelines for Public Interest OSINT Investigations. https://obsint.eu/guidelines-for-public-interest-osint-investigations/ (Accessed 08 January 2025)